Elections in Brazil: “These are the most important elections since the end of the dictatorship because our still fragile democratic system is at stake”

The winner must exceed 50% of the valid votes cast this Sunday (not counting blanks and voids) to begin a new presidential term on January 1, 2023.

The result may vary due to factors such as the abstention rate or the choice of undecided and undecided voters, which some studies put at around 5%.

The campaign was marked by strong political polarization, acts of violence and doubts about whether Bolsonaro, a former army captain who sought without evidence to cast doubt on Brazil’s electoral system, would accept final defeat.

“A circus show similar to the one (Donald) Trump has staged in the US cannot be ruled out,” Carvalho said, alluding to the country’s then-president and Bolsonaro ally’s refusal to accept his own defeat in the 2020 elections.

After his final debate with Lula on Friday night, Bolsonaro claimed he had “not the slightest doubt” that he would respect the election result even if it was unfavorable: “Whoever has the most votes wins,” he declared.

What follows is a summary of an email exchange with Carvalho, who is 83 and has received several awards and honorary doctorates during his career:

Please explain how you rate the historical importance of these elections in Brazil, pitting former President Lula against current President Bolsonaro…

The Republic of Brazil is 133 years old. The first elections with significant citizen participation were in 1945.

In the second in 1950, when I was 11, Getúlio Vargas, the former civilian dictator and air force brigadier who helped overthrow him in 1945, contested, representing the military, the elite and the middle class.

Getúlio, at the time compared to Perón, adopted a strong workers’ program and won with the support of the workers. In 1954, faced with strong resistance from the army and civilians, he was forced to resign and committed suicide.

The struggle against labor and nationalism, exacerbated by the Cold War, led to a coup in 1964 and a military dictatorship (1964-1985).

Today we have something similar. A Labor representative (Lula) trying to return to power, facing a president supported by the middle class, the military and businessmen.

The big difference today is the absence of the Cold War and the threat of US intervention, although external factors are not completely absent.

Do you see these elections as the most important in the country at least since the return of democracy?

It is undoubtedly the most important after the end of the dictatorship because our still fragile democratic system is at stake.

Do you see any danger of crisis or institutional breakdown in Brazil related to the outcome of these elections?

The risk could come only in case of defeat of the president (Bolsonaro). A circus show similar to the one Trump staged in the United States cannot be ruled out.

My bet is that the armed forces will not support him and that external pressure will be strong in the US, the European Union and the main countries of Latin America.

To what extent do Bolsonaro and Lula represent two different ways of understanding Brazil?

The difference is big. Lula is like the new Vargas with a support base among workers, the poor and intellectuals.

Bolsonaro is based on the sectors of the middle class, Pentecostalism, large companies, agribusiness and the military, armed forces and police.

Part of the controversy also takes place in the field of values, especially in relation to family and gender identity.

In the case of Bolsonaro, he comes to this second round after a very tumultuous government, which his critics accuse of authoritarian attitudes, of dividing the country, of a wrong response to the coronavirus pandemic and, thus, exacerbating during his government the critical situation that Brazil already had. Even so, have chances of winning another government, according to polls. How do you explain the support the president has?

That’s the million dollar question. How can a president who does not respect the law, who despises institutions, including the powers of the Republic, and democratic values, intolerant of progress in gender and racial equality, indifferent, if not hostile to the protection of the environment, the environment, name some examples, be elected and have possibility of re-election?

Part of the answer may lie in the fact that there is also a great rejection of former President Lula.

Polls show a large rejection of respondents towards both, between 47% (Bolsonaro) and 41% (Lula).

The country is divided down the middle and the chosen one, whoever he is, will have to face great resistance.

In Lula’s case, he wants to become president again after corruption scandals emerged during his Workers’ Party rule and a corruption conviction overturned by the Supreme Court, without the former president making much of a self-criticism for his mistakes. What is the main reason why can return to palacio plateau?

Surely there must be a personal side: proving that he is innocent and does not go down in history as a convicted president.

There is also the arrogance of his party, Radnika, which never wanted to admit that there was corruption.

For the party, the former president is its only candidate who can win the elections.

Brazil commemorated September marks the two hundredth anniversary of independence. Are you saying this election suggests that? Brazil still looking for the country you want to be in?

There is not much to celebrate in this bicentennial.

On the political side, we failed to build a democratic republic on solid foundations, as can be seen from what is happening today. We remain under the tutelage of the Armed Forces, which are considered the guardians of the Republic.

On the social side, we are the eighth most unequal country in the world, and the 84th according to the human development index.

Independence was achieved under the dream of building a great empire here. In the 1930s, the Austrian Stefan Zweig wrote a laudatory book entitled “Brazil, the country of the future”. That empire and that future are far away, if they ever come.

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